Micron (MU) Equity Research Report: Fiscal Q4 2026 Results

Micron Technology, Inc. (Nasdaq: MU) reported fiscal Q4 2026 revenue of $54.23 billion. The quarter ended September 3, 2026. [1]

Revenue rose 31% from the prior quarter and 379% from the same quarter a year earlier. [1]

Fiscal Q4 2026 had 14 weeks and the prior quarter had 13. Per week, revenue rose 21%. [1] [9]

Fiscal 2026 revenue was $133.19 billion, up 256% from fiscal 2025. [10]

Higher memory prices caused most of the growth in fiscal 2026 versus fiscal 2025. DRAM average selling prices had an “approximate 180% increase”, while DRAM bit shipments had a “mid-20% range increase”. [11]

Micron guided fiscal Q1 2027 revenue to $61.5 billion, plus or minus $1.5 billion. [12]

The main question is how long memory prices stay this high. New industry supply and the terms of new long-term contracts will answer it.

This report is not investment advice. It gives no rating and no price objective.

GAAP gross margin was 86.8% in fiscal Q4 2026. GAAP means U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Gross margin is revenue minus cost of goods sold, as a percent of revenue. [2]

Non-GAAP gross margin was 87.0%. Non-GAAP measures remove items such as stock-based compensation. [2]

GAAP diluted EPS was $32.87, and non-GAAP diluted EPS was $33.42. Diluted EPS is net income divided by the diluted share count. [5]

Operating cash flow was $43.97 billion. Adjusted free cash flow was $33.20 billion. [6] [7]

Micron defines adjusted free cash flow as operating cash flow minus net capital expenditures: $43,973M - $10,774M = $33,199M. [7]

Cash, marketable investments, and restricted cash totaled $73.48 billion at quarter end. [13]

On June 24, 2026, Micron guided fiscal Q4 2026 revenue to $50.0 billion, plus or minus $1.0 billion. Guidance is the company's own forecast for the next quarter. [14]

Actual revenue of $54.23 billion was 8% above the guide midpoint. Formula: ($54.23B reported - $50.0B guide midpoint) / $50.0B. [1] [14]

GAAP gross margin of 86.8% compared with a guide of about 86%. [2] [14]

GAAP operating expenses were $3,296M, against a guide of about $1.86 billion. They included patent license charges of $500M. [4] [14] [15]

GAAP diluted EPS was $32.87, against a guide of $30.73, plus or minus $1.00. [5] [14]

For fiscal Q1 2027, Micron guided revenue of $61.5 billion, plus or minus $1.5 billion. It guided gross margin of about 85.95%. [12] [16]

The GAAP diluted EPS guide is $37.84, plus or minus $1.00. The non-GAAP guide is $38.15, plus or minus $1.00. [17]

The guide midpoint is 13% above fiscal Q4 2026 revenue. Formula: ($61.5B guide midpoint - $54.23B reported) / $54.23B. [1] [12]

Factory capacity cannot grow much in one quarter. So the guide depends mainly on prices staying high.

Memory revenue equals bits shipped multiplied by the average selling price per bit. A bit is the basic unit of memory capacity.

So revenue can grow in two ways: the company ships more bits, or it gets a higher price per bit.

The annual report explains revenue for the full fiscal year only. It does not split fiscal Q4 2026 into price and volume. [11]

In fiscal 2026, DRAM revenue rose 252% versus fiscal 2025. Average selling prices had an “approximate 180% increase”. Bit shipments had a “mid-20% range increase”. [11]

In fiscal 2026, NAND revenue rose 274% versus fiscal 2025. Average selling prices had an “approximate 200% increase”. Bit shipments had a “mid-20% range increase”. [18]

Micron reports these drivers as ranges or approximate values. This report shows them as filed. [11]

DRAM was 76% of revenue in fiscal 2026. Formula: $100,679M DRAM revenue / $133,188M total revenue. [19]

Micron states that AI-driven demand for memory and storage is growing faster than industry supply. [20]

Price is the variable that changes fastest. So the durability of these earnings depends mainly on memory prices, which industry supply and demand set.

Cost of goods sold (COGS) is the direct cost to make the products sold. COGS rose 12.2% from the prior quarter. [21]

Revenue rose 30.8% in the same period. The annual report does not split this quarter into price and volume. [21]

Incremental gross margin was 94%. It is the change in gross margin dollars divided by the change in revenue: ($47,047M - $35,056M) / ($54,229M - $41,456M). [21]

So almost every added dollar of revenue became gross profit. This is the pattern of price-led growth. [21]

COGS fell from 55% of revenue a year earlier to 13%. Revenue growth, not lower cost, caused most of this change. [21]

GAAP operating income was $43,751M, or 81% of revenue. A year earlier it was 32% of revenue. [4]

Operating leverage also works in reverse. Most costs stay when prices fall, so margins would fall fast.

Micron reports four business units. Core Data Center was the largest in fiscal Q4 2026, with $18.002 billion of revenue. [22]

Gross margin ranged from 83% to 90% across the units. A year earlier, the range was 31% to 59%. [22] [23] [24] [25]

Core Data Center grew fastest over the year: from $1.577 billion to $18.002 billion, or 11.4 times. [22]

The four units add up to $54.223 billion of the $54.23 billion total. The rest comes from smaller operations that the company reports as All Other. [1] [22] [23] [24] [25]

In the third and fourth fiscal quarters of 2026, Micron signed multi-year strategic customer agreements. [26]

They are take-or-pay agreements with binding volume commitments. In a take-or-pay agreement, the customer pays for the committed volume even if it takes less. [26]

Most agreements have prices within minimum and maximum bands. Other prices are fixed or negotiated from time to time. [26]

Micron expects gross margin from agreements with price bands to stay above its peak quarterly margin in any past cycle, even at floor prices. [27]

Remaining performance obligations (RPO) are contracted revenue not yet recognized. RPO was about $134 billion on September 3, 2026. [28]

Micron measures RPO with minimum volumes and minimum prices. It excludes agreements without price bands, so it is not a forecast of contract revenue. [28]

About one-fourth, roughly $33.5 billion, is expected to become revenue in the next 12 months. That equals 25% of fiscal 2026 revenue: ($134B / 4) / $133,188M. [28] [29]

Micron received $12.75 billion of cash deposits under these agreements in fiscal 2026. Nearly all are scheduled to be repaid between 2029 and 2031. [30]

A minimum price limits the downside on covered volume. A maximum price limits the upside. Volume outside the agreements stays exposed to market prices. [26]

The filings do not state what share of total output the agreements cover. That share decides how much the agreements reduce cycle risk. [26]

Capital expenditure (capex) is cash spent on plant and equipment. In fiscal 2026, capex rose 94%: $15,857M to $30,712M. [31]

Capex was 3.2x depreciation and amortization over the same period. Formula: $30,712M capex / $9,503M depreciation and amortization. [31] [32]

Capex used 34% of operating cash flow. Formula: $30,712M capex / $89,675M operating cash flow. [31]

In fiscal Q4 2026 alone, net capex was $10,774M and adjusted free cash flow was $33,199M. [7]

New memory capacity takes years to build. So spending now adds industry supply in later years.

In past memory cycles, high prices led producers to add capacity. When that capacity arrived together, prices fell. This report tests whether this cycle follows the same path.

Receivables are amounts that customers owe for products already delivered. [33]

In fiscal 2026, receivables rose by $25,206M. That used cash equal to 28% of operating cash flow. Formula: $25,206M receivables increase / $89,675M operating cash flow. [31] [33]

Both figures cover the full fiscal year, not one quarter. [33]

A receivables increase is normal when sales rise fast. If receivables keep growing faster than revenue, it can be an early sign of weaker demand. [33]

In fiscal Q4 2026, operating cash flow was $43,973M and GAAP net income was $37,701M. [4] [6]

Each value below comes from figures in the cited filings. The formula column lets a reader recompute it.

The next event is the fiscal Q1 2027 results. They test the revenue guide of $61.5 billion, plus or minus $1.5 billion, and the gross margin guide of about 85.95%. [12] [16]

Operating expenses are guided to $2.31 billion GAAP and $2.06 billion non-GAAP. Fast cost growth would reduce incremental margins. [34]

Further disclosure on the strategic customer agreements matters most. The key facts are covered volume, floor prices, and deposits received. [26] [28]

The board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share. Compare shareholder returns with capex needs. [35]

This report does not use the share price or valuation multiples. It sets out the earnings questions that drive value.

Multiplying fiscal Q4 2026 by four would overstate normal earnings in a cyclical industry. Normalized earnings, the average across a full price cycle, are a better base. [1] [2]

The scenarios below state what must be true in each case and which facts would show it.

The next report will score this view against these facts.

If bit shipments start to grow faster than prices, growth is volume-led. Incremental margins will then fall below this quarter's level. [11]

If COGS rises much faster than revenue, new capacity is adding cost faster than prices add revenue. [21]

If fiscal Q1 2027 revenue or gross margin lands below the guide, prices were weaker than the company expected. [12] [16]

If receivables keep growing faster than revenue, cash collection is falling behind sales. [33]

If disclosures show the agreements cover a large share of output at high floors, cycle risk is lower than this report assumes. [26]

Price risk is the main risk. Most of the revenue growth came from price, and prices can fall as fast as they rose. [11] [18]

Capacity risk follows from current capex. New supply from all producers can arrive in the same period. [31]

Contract risk cuts both ways. Maximum prices limit upside, and the share of output under contract is not disclosed. [26]

Customer concentration is high. About half of total revenue came from the top ten customers in each of the last three years. [36]

This report does not use the earnings call, prepared remarks, or slides. It uses the SEC copy of the earnings release and the Form 10-K.

This report does not use share prices, analyst estimates, or news coverage.

Micron filed 19 reports with the SEC in the 12 months to October 26, 2026. Insider Forms 3, 4, 5, and 144 are not included. [37]

Outside holders filed 4 beneficial-ownership schedules (Schedule 13D or 13G) about Micron in the same 12 months. The holders file these, not the company. [38]

The OpenNash research agent built this report from public SEC filings. Data is as of October 26, 2026.

It read the SEC filing index, the earnings releases filed as Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, the annual report on Form 10-K, and the prior Form 10-Q for quarter lengths.

Each figure links to the filing text it came from. Each derived metric shows its formula.

Analysis sentences without a citation number are OpenNash analysis. They add no new facts.